The Korean Peninsula should remain a security concern
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With both South Korea and the United States currently focused on domestic matters, it will be extremely difficult for both to offer exit strategies to North Korea’s imposing threats in the foreseeable future. Further compounding the situation is the fact that China is by no means a reluctant stakeholder with its own regional interests.
Seoul cannot depend on Beijing and should not expect President Xi Jinping to alter course on Pyongyang. Indeed, Xi has become increasingly proactive in defending China's interests, but ambiguous about what its actual interests are in delaying open conflict with other leaders for as long as possible.
As I mentioned several years ago, North Korea is not Iran and stands at an impasse. P5+1 will not be able to negotiate a deal with Kim, Jong-un, and no country, not even the U.S. will be able to stop North Korea’s nuclear brinkmanship.
Therefore, South Korean policymakers must focus on what they can control. Seoul needs to continue to rely on strengthening the alliance with Washington and work on defense modernization geared towards its Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD). A robust and integrated layered defense system is critical to counter the increased North Korean ballistic missile threat to the Korean Peninsula.
For the past few years, the U.S. has deployed its third-generation Patriot missile batteries (PAC-3s) and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense to South Korea, which increase the shoot-down capability of enemy ballistic missiles due to enhanced performance in range, height, maneuverability, and detection. Upgraded software enables tailored searches for Theater Ballistic Missiles and a “keep-out altitude” to destroy missiles with chemical warheads or early release sub-munitions at specified altitudes, minimizing ground fallout.
South Korea has vast varieties of armor, aviation, air defense, aviation, and missiles in their armed forces. To enhance footprint coverage for BMD, the South Korean government upgraded its PAC-2s to PAC-3s last year; when combined with current U.S. PAC-3s, these will create an effective missile defense system across the Korean Peninsula. These upgraded PAC-3s are ballistic missile “hit-to-kill” intercept capable, like the U.S. PAC-3s.
While the South Korea-U.S. alliance’s ability to adapt and modernize to meet the North Korean threat has enhanced regional and global security, success is not limited to equipment such as the Patriot upgrade. Washington and Seoul must continue to improve interoperability and institutional combined operations. The alliance’s ironclad strength is made manifest through its signature ability to seamlessly integrate personnel and systems capabilities. By working together, the alliance can win the “fight tonight” and defeat the enemy threat.
It is difficult, if not impossible, to overstate the threat North Korea poses to the Korean Peninsula and the Indo-Pacific region. With the world’s fourth-largest conventional military located merely 35 miles away, the South Korea-U.S. alliance confronts and deters a potentially devastating conflict daily. Nonetheless, after Pyongyang’s sixth nuclear test, now more than ever it is critical that the alliance make every effort to maintain readiness to defend South Korea at a moment’s notice.
